Winter 2023/24

There has been snow on the very highest Exmoor hills in December with hard frosts and icy conditions but the roads have been liberally salted and so far no prospect of a white Christmas. I expect the climate activists will claim it is all down to global warming whatever the weather.
If it snows hard we should expect more such extreme weather events and if it doesn't snow then it's because the temperature is unseasonably warm. In either case it is caused by global warming. QED.

The Ukraine Russia Conflict

The war in Ukraine which we are told Mr Putin thought would be a pushover in a few days has now continued for almost two years and shows no sign of ending. NATO estimates Russian military casualties of over 300,000 and the USA estimates over 180,000 Ukrainian soldiers with over 28,000 civilians of which 10,000 were killed and those estimates are to November 2023.

I commented on the previous page on the history surrounding the Israeli Palestinian conflict and its reasons and thought it might be a good idea to do the same for the Ukrainian conflict which has reached a critical juncture with the US government and the EU making noises about stopping further funding to Ukraine. The UK says it will stick with Ukraine to the bitter end. Shades of 1939 and Germany's invasion of Poland.

The above map depicts the approximate geographic area in the 11th century of a collection of Slavic principalities collectively known as Kyievan Rus to which modern day Belarus, Russia and Ukraine all regard as their cultural ancestor.

If you would like to learn more about the history of the current conflict you will find it by expanding this page here.⯆⯅

In the 13th century the Mongols invaded Kyievan Rus and destroyed Kyiv. Then from the 15th to the 18th centuries most of the land became part of the Ottoman empire (see map below) known as the Crimean Khanate and it was not until the Soviet Ukrainian War between 1917 and 1921 that Ukraine was absorbed into Soviet Russia (SFSR), the forerunner of the Soviet Union (USSR). Complicated aye!

The second world war further complicated things when Germany invaded Ukraine in 1941 with a little help from Romania and that state of affairs existed until 1944 and the German defeat. With the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 Ukraine became an independent State but the new Russian Federation always had different ideas and in 2014 invaded Crimea which is largely Russian speaking and was generally unopposed by the Crimeans.

The Oblasts (regions) on the mainland next to the Russian border also had large populations of Russian speakers and following Crimea the Russians began to infiltrate those Oblasts, supporting rebel pro-Russian groups. In July 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down by infiltrated Russian forces when the missile launcher was traced back to Russia. All 283 passengers and 15 crew were killed.
In February 2022 Putins Russia invaded Ukraine and we all thought that was the end of them as an independent State but they had done much work since 2014 on democratising the border area including the Donbas Oblasts, encouraging the Ukrainian language and building up their military so the Russian attempt to capture Kyiv was repulsed and the Russians retreated from Kyiv and later Donetsk.

The above map shows the situation of the opposing factions in December 2023 as fighting continues but neither side making progress. Conversely Putin claims Russian forces are moving forward with over 600,000 soldiers in his army and will not stop until his objectives are met. Is this fact or propaganda?

Western nations belatedly stepped in with military aid packages. IMHO that is what they should have done back in 2014 if they were serious in opposing Putin rather than appeasing him. Give him an inch and he will take a yard many believe and should he overcome Ukraine then Poland and the Baltic States are next on his shopping list.

Champions Cup Rugby

Round two of the pool stages provided an indication of which teams were likely to qualify for the knockout stage. There are four pools of six teams and the top four teams in each pool will progress after the next two rounds in mid January next year.

If you would like to read a brief report of results from round two you can click here to expand the page.⯆⯅

Northampton hosted Toulon in the opening game on Friday night and the visitors were anxious for a win after being pipped at the post last weekend at home by Exeter.
The visitors were chasing the game from the off and could only manage 3 points by the interval to Saints two tries from Tom Seabrook and George Furbank. A Melvyn Jaminet try brought them within two points in the second half but another Furbank try restored the lead at the restart. Then a try from David Ribbans put Toulon ahead for the first time until three minutes from the end Tom Lockett went over to seal a Saints win 22-19.

Glasgow were down in Bayonne for a closely fought game which could have gone either way. It was 11-12 in the Warriors favour throughout the last quarter and Reece Hodge missed two penalties for Bayonne which would have won them the game but that was how it finished.

Down in South Africa the Stormers just managed to snatch victory from La Rochelle in the closing minutes with a try from Andre-Hugo Venter but they needed the conversion from Manie Libbok for the 21-20 win.
Saracens were at home to Connacht who were still in the game at half time but the Sarries cut loose and ran in five tries to win 55-36.

Bristol were down in Bordeaux and were completely outclassed by a French side full of class like Damian Penaud and Matthieu Jalibert. The speed and accuracy of their passing was a pleasure to watch and Brissle struggled to even get hold of the ball such was the French dominance. It ended 36-14.

The Bulls travelled North to Lyon and led from the start until the last ten minutes when Thibaut Regard scored a try which put them on point ahead. Jaco van der Wal missed a match winning penalty for the Bulls in the closing minutes and it finished 29-28 in the Lyonais favour.
Sale were away to Leinster and were soundly beaten 37-27 and my Baarf boys nipped across the bridge into Wales to play Cardiff at Cardiff Arms Park.
It was a great games of rugby but I thought that Baarf made hard work of it. Every time they got a lead they let Cardiff back in and the result was always in doubt. Barge managed the game better and hung on to their seven point lead for the last 10 minutes to win 32-39 and take a second bonus 5 points from the game.

The French teams have not done particularly well but you would have expected Racing 92 to turn up at Ulster but they were gobbed 31-15,
The next day Exeter entertained Munster in a game that had Exeter on the back foot for most of it. In the final quarter a flurry of tries from Ross Vintcent and Jack Dunne put the Chiefs ahead by a point then two minutes from the whistle non other but Henry Slade went over for a try which sealed the deal 32-24.

Quins finally met their match at the Stoop where they hosted five times European champions Toulouse who gave them a good thumping. With golden balls like Antoine Dupont and Thomas Ramos in charge what did they expect and Quins fly half Marcus Smith had one of his off days. Toulouse ran in seven tries to win 19-47 and are no doubt already favourites to win the trophy for the sixth time.

Leicester Tigers went to Paris and knocked off Stade Francais. Going in to the last quarter the scores were level until Jamie Shillcock kicked a penalty for a three point lead where it stayed into extra time then Mike Brown got a yellow card so Stade kicked to the corner but failed to cross the Tigers line who breathed again 24-27.

The top two teams after round two in each pool are as follows:
Pool One: Bordeaux 10 Lyon 7.
Pool Two: Toulouse 10 Bath 10.
Pool Three: Northampton 9 Exeter 9.
Pool Four: Leinster 9 Leicester 9.

TWaTs

The word has been in my vocabulary for many years and I understood it was a slightly rude noun referring to someone who behaved stupidly. It was also a slang term for a woman's private parts. It has now turned up as an acronym for working from home Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday which is another way of making long weekends permanent. You just take your laptop with you to the beach!
Senior civil servants have been told they must return to their offices for 60% of the working week but they are unable to comply because there are not enough desks! New starters must be in the office more that 60% so they can not be TWaTs. All part of our government efficiency drive and we know they are all twats.

Covid and PPE

Baroness Mone (or should it be Moan) has attracted my attention in the previous week and, let's face it, she is attractive. She and her husband, Doug Barrowman, have gone on the offensive after the government sued them for breach of contract to supply PPE and the NCA (National Crime Agency) began an investigation into criminal wrongdoing.

Lady Mone lobbied Michael Gove for the contract but denied involvement until now when she admitted lying to the media about her involvement yet she did not think she had done anything wrong by not declaring an interest as a member of the House of Lords. She also admitted that in the event of her husbands death that she would benefit from his trust.
I conclude she is a lying toadie who doesn't know the difference between an excuse and an apology.

After watching their interview and, apart from the fact he should lose a few pounds or get a looser fitting shirt, I would describe Barrowman as a STB (Smooth Talking Bastard). He said the profit from his PPE deal was £60 million and the contract value was £200m. That is a 30% profit margin for not manufacturing anything but simply taking the manufacturers price and adding his markup. He also muttered something about PPE prices rising at that time and that the return being compatible with the risk. I fail to see where there was any risk.

Like all STB's he had an answer to everything. When asked why he did not report his claim to the police that a government employee had asked him how much he was prepared to pay for the NCA investigation to go away he said he was advised by his lawyers to let the matter lie for the time being. If a criminal case comes to trial I suppose it will be used then. He is also facing criminal charges in Spain.

During the pandemic some companies like Astrazenica put profit on hold and worked for the good of the country. Others like Barrowman and Mone saw it as an opportunity to make a quick buck. As a taxpayer I wish the government every success in retrieving their ill gotten gains.

Password Hell

I regularly go through password hell when trying to access company web sites. Since BT Sport emigrated to TNT Sport which is hosted by the Discovery plus channel I spent several hours on the phone to get connected when their online systems didn't work. Then after several weeks I was requested to again activate my account and the password hell started.

God knows how the elderly who, unlike me, are not computer savvy and it seems I am not alone as a birthday card from my friends Jeremy and Ann Clifford is reproduced here which tells the tale.

I use a server side password manager which sits in your browser as an extension called LastPass which generates random passwords to order but still web sites reject those passwords. The only solution I have found is to give up and try again the next day which usually works.

And then there are some support staff who are usually young and begin with the premise that the elderly are as thick as two short planks when it comes to computing. As I explained to one chappie "I was writing code before you were even a glint in your fathers eye".

My health update 15/01/2024

This blog has not been updated since before Christmas as I was hit by a few health problems. Firstly I was troubled by swelling and pain in one leg and my haematologist was concerned that it might be the chemo causing deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and arranged for me to attend Musgrove hospital the same day for an ultrasound scan where her fears were proved correct. I was given a course of Xarelto tablets which seem to be easing the pain and reducing the swelling, however I was then struck down with the dreaded seasonal cold that seems to be circulating which needed a course of antibiotics to clear my chest of infection.

The latest chemo has turned out to be a complete failure and in addition having little effect on the myeloma it has caused liver problems in addition to the DVT which means there are little options left for further treatment.

I was offered three alternative treatments. The one most likely to provide the longest remission was a trial of a new drug used in combination with Carfilzomib and dexamethasone. It involved many different tests before being accepted as a participant then two hospital visits a week for intravenous injections sometimes three.
The second offer was not an official trial but what they called a 'compassionate' offer by a drug company of a new drug called Belantamab mafodotin but known to cause eye problems, a side effect that I have already experienced with Daratumubab previously, a drug of the same type that works in the same way.
Finally and the least effective offer medically was Velcade which is the drug I was prescribed back in NZ in 2020 and was effective for over a year, in combination with panobinostat which comes with the now familiar diarrhoea, nausea, fatigue insomnia and oedema. At this stage of myeloma progression this treatment is not expected to be effective for more than 3 to 6 months. Never the less I opted to choose the Velcade from the three treatments offered which will commence on 16/01/2024.

My prognosis is now 6 to 12 months. Here in the UK if a doctor thinks your life expectancy is less than 12 months you can apply for a blue badge so parking at the hospital will be free. You also qualify for attendance allowance which is a little over £100 a week to help with any additional expenditure which is not means tested.
The Macmillan Cancer Support Worker for Haematology has appeared on the scene to assist with any non medical subjects I might care to discuss or need help with.

Rugby updates

The recent setbacks to my health left me in no state to sit in front of a computer and write anything interesting so here is a brief update so far.
In the premiership three rounds have been played since my last update which have left the table as you see it here.

2023/24 GALLAGHER PREMIERSHIP Round 11
Pos	Team	Pl	W	D	L	Pts
1	Northampton	11	8	0	3	39
2	Harlequins	11	7	0	4	36
3	Bath	11	7	0	4	36
4	Exeter	11	7	0	4	35
5	Sale	11	7	0	4	32
6	Saracens	11	6	0	5	31
7	Leicester	11	6	0	5	29
8	Bristol	11	5	0	6	25
9	Gloucester	11	2	0	9	17
10	Newcastle	11	0	0	11	4

Northampton have been playing out of their skins and are by far the best and most consistent team in the premiership, thoroughly deserving of the top spot in the competition.
Quins and Baarf are also playing well but more inconsistent while Exeter are often hanging on by the skin of their teeth but somehow find a way to win.
Sale are a hard side to beat at home but struggle away while Sarries seem to have lost their dominance of previous seasons. The bottom three are probably out of contention for the play-offs now and poor old Newcastle have yet to win a game.

Interestingly it is the closest I can ever remember the premiership at this stage of just over half way through the competition with only 4 points separating the top four teams and perhaps 7 teams well in contention for the play-offs. My favourites at this stage have to be the Saints but Baarf could yet meet them in the final.

Three out of four Champions Cup pool games have been played and the top four teams in each pool will go forward to the knock-outs. After three games the points are as follows:
Pool One: Bordeaux 15, Lyon 12, Bulls 10, Bristol 5, Sarries 5, Connacht 1.
Pool Two: Toulouse 15 Bath 15, Quins 10, Ulster 5, Racing 3, Cardiff 2.
Pool Three: Northampton 14 Exeter 13, Munster 8, Glasgow 5, Bayonne 3, Toulon 2.
Pool Four: Leinster 14, Stormers 9, Leicester 9, La Rochelle 7, Sale 5, Stade Francais 1.

The English teams have done remarkably well so far while they Frogs not so good with Racing, Bayonne, Toulon and Stade Francais either out of the running or likely to do so.
My Baarf boys travel down to Toulouse next week and, barring a miracle, will lose but it should be pretty to watch and we are through to the knock-outs whatever happens.

This was how the fourth round finished:

Glasgow demolished Toulon 29-5 so Toulon go out and Glasgow meet Quins at the Stoop on April 5th.
Connacht beat Bristol 27-10 but both go out.
Quins beat Ulster 47-19 so Ulster go out and will met Quins at the Stoop on April 5th.
Bulls beat Bordeaux 46-40 so Bulls meet Lyon at Loftus on April 6th and Lyon meet Sarries in Bordeaux on April 6th.
Leinster lost at home to Leinster 10-27 so Leinster will meet them again at home on 6th April.
Racing beat Cardiff 48-26 so Cardiff go out and Racing will meet Toulouse at Toulouse on April 7th.
Munster lost to Northampton 23-26 so will meet them again at Franklins Gardens on April 7th.
Stade Francais lost to the Stormers 20-24 so go out and Stormers will meet la Rochelle in SA on 6th April.
Sarries beat Lyon 29-24 so meet Bordeaux in Bordeaux on April 6th.
Sale Sharks lost to La Rochelle 24-37 so are out.
Toulouse beat Bath 31-19 and Bath now meet Exeter at Sandy Park on 6th April.
Finally Bayonne beat Exeter 40-17 but Bayonne still go out.

2023/24 GALLAGHER PREMIERSHIP Round 12
Pos	Team	Pl	W	D	L	Pts
1	Northampton	12	9	0	3	44
2	Harlequins	12	7	0	5	37
3	Bath	12	7	0	5	37
4	Saracens	12	7	0	5	36
5	Exeter	12	7	0	5	35
6	Leicester	12	7	0	5	33
7	Sale	12	7	0	5	32
8	Bristol	12	6	0	6	30
9	Gloucester	12	3	0	9	22
10	Newcastle	12	0	0	11	4

The premiership reached round 12 with six more games before the play-offs.Quins just lost to Leicester at the Stoop 1920 while Northampton continued their willing for against Newcastle who have still to win a game 39-13.

Baarf were in a Derby at a sell out Ashton Gate against Brissle and Had a poor first half playing their worst Rugby this season going in at Half time 33-15. They pulled their socks up in the 2nd half bit could not quite make up for their first half performance loosing 57-44

Sarries beat Exeter 40-22 at home and Gloucester did the same to Sale 32-20 to finally get a win after so many losses this season.

The premiership stops now for the six nations games but they do play in the premiership cup which I find of little interest however the six nations is my favourite competition.

It began in Marseille and not Paris as the Stade de France is being renovated for the forthcoming Olympic games. The mouthwatering fixture was between the two top teams, France and Ireland. France had an off day losing Paul Willemse to a red card for two yellows early in the first half but Ireland did not put a foot wrong and gobbed they Frogs 17-38. They look favourites for a grand slam.

Italy met England at Home and played a stormer going in at half time leading England 17-14. England looked quite sharp just the same and played more rugby than the usual tennis to take the lead at the restart but let Italy back into the game at the finish to win 24-27./p>

Scotland had not won in Cardiff for over 20 years but dominated the first half then a converted try in the 2nd put them 27 nil up and it looked like this young Welsh side were going to be humiliated. But someone put a leek up their backside or something because they came out of the blocks then a different side to score 26 unanswered points but just couldn't manage to win the game.
Next Saturday Wales travel to Twickers and England will have to watch their step if Wales can improve their line out.

Another health update 07/02/2024.

The last medication was another failure due to me being unable to tolerate the side effects. The medication was Velcade and Dexamethasone which tolerated well in new Zealand but the addition of Panobinostat cause nausea, vomiting, loss of appetite, severe fatigue and breathlessness after only 6 days so I had to give it up.

The specialist at the hospital agreed that the Panobinostat was probably the culprit at she described it as a nasty drug so she had not dropped the third drug for the time being to see if the other two can keep to myeloma at bay for a while. Most of the side effects have already disappeared now and I started the new regime today.

I now have my blue badge so I can park free at the hospital and my attendance allowance was confirmed today of £101 per week which will rise to £108 in April and the village agent has arranged for me to have a home help assistant quickly at £20 per hour should I need it.

Here is a link to the next page in my blog.

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